Sox Won’t
Nats Will
The SOX:
Bobby Valentine said yesterday, “I think we’re a playoff team, and I think we’re going to be there before the season is over,” adding that they just need to stay healthy.
He’s wrong.
The Sox won’t be in the playoffs for one specific reason.
It’s not Bobby’s managing or the clubhouse dynamics.
It’s not the injuries, tho they’ve been severe. The Sox have not a played a game this year where Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, Gonzales, and Ortiz have all been in the lineup at the same time.
It’s not because Pedroia and Ellsbury’s production is way off from their last year stellar seasons.
It’s not because of offense at all. The Sox have scored 551 runs, second only to Texas.
Maybe it’s the loss of closer Papelbon? Not really. He’s saved 24 of 27 at Philadelphia while Aceves has saved 23 of 29. Not a big enough difference to account for the Sox playing around or below .500. And overall, the bullpen has saved 26 of 41, better than the Yankees and about average for the AL.
It’s because they’ve allowed 519 runs for a run differential of +32. Meanwhile, the Yankees run differential is +90, Texas’ is +80, and the Nats’ is +85.
But more specifically, it’s because John Lester and Josh Beckett have a combined ERA of 5.18, and the Sox are 15-27 in games they’ve started.
15-27?
If they were the Beckett and Lester of 2008-2010, that would be reversed, and the Sox would be in first place.
No way the Sox will make the playoffs as long as Lester and Beckett continue at their current level.
Even if the Sox stay healthy, score some more runs, stabilize their currently shaky bullpen, continue to field well (8th out of the 30 Major League teams), there’s no hope as long as their two (former?) premium pitchers have an ERA of 5+.
The NATS:
As most folks know, the Nats, my second favorite team (tho I am not as obsessed by them as I am about the Sox), have the best record in all of baseball, 68-43 for .613 W-L %.
I keep thinking they are headed for a fall.
But look at why they are doing so well.
Run Differential +85 (480-395)
Fewest Runs Allowed in the Majors
Saves – 38 of 51, Tied for Fourth in the NL
ERA – .326, Best in the Majors
BA – .256 (opponents – .233)
Fielding Ave. – .985
But it starts with their pitching.
Even if they have to shut down Strasburg and Zimmerman, they should at least make the playoffs.
The World Series is always up for grabs, however.
Brian "Stabach" Steinbach said:
This could be simpler. The Red Sox are losing and the Nats are winning. In the immortal words of Stan Lee, ” ’nuff said. “
Todd endo said:
Hmmm! I see a trend! Maybe Rick’s long-time residency in DC is catching up with childhood attachment to the Red Sox! As a long-time Washington fan (I’ve seen three different baseball teams in three different stadiums in DC), I can empathize with the long-time and long-suffering Red Sox fans. But, the Red Sox finally did win a World Series after 80 years. now, Rick, it’s time to root on Nationals to their first World Series victory in 80 years.
Chris Boutourline said:
I’m giving the Red Sox ONE more week of love and then… Right now there are nine teams ahead of them in the standings (and five behind). Of the nine teams ahead of the Sox three will win divisions and six are vying for the two wild-card spots (if anybody doesn’t already know, the wild-card teams play a one game playoff with the winner advancing to play the highest seed). The good news is that the Sox play a lot of the teams in front of them and can ‘control their own fate’ (is it really fate then?). The bad news is the team appears close to coming apart at the seams and is hard to figure; win two of three from the Yanks & Tigers and then lose three in a row, at home, to the Twins? Anyway, 50 games to play 9 vs both Baltimore and the Yanks: 6 games vs LA, Tampa and Toronto, 4 vs Cleveland & KC, 3 vs Oak & Seattle. A ten game road trip starts tonight with 4 games in Cleveland if they don’t leave Baltimore for three games in NY a week from now at least 5-2 I will break up with them Steve Martin style.