I’ve been toting up the answers and winners, etc. for three of the four MillersTime Baseball Contests for 2018. One contest was already decided, and the winner and runners up were announced earlier: Contest #2: Which League will win the All-Star game in 2018 (click on link to see that result.).
But I need some advice and your suggestions about the winner(s) for Contest #1. Contests #3 and #4 have clear winners and runners up and will be announced as soon as I’ve sorted out, with your help, Contest #1.
So, regarding Contest #1, there are five individuals I am considering. I will list them below by Contest Number so you will not be influenced by a name (though if you recognize your own submission, feel free to push for yourself if that is something you wish to do).
Here are the details:
Contest #1: Pick your favorite MLB team (or the one you know most about) and answer the following questions to prove whether you’re just a homer (“Someone who shows blind loyalty to a team or organization typically ignoring any shortcomings or faults they have”) or whether you really know something about your team and can honestly evaluate its strengths and weaknesses. Answers to the following three questions will determine who wins this contest:
A. What will your team’s regular season 162 game record be in 2018?
B. Will they make the playoffs (or postseason as someone pointed out to me MLB calls the playoffs), and if so, how far will they go?
C. What will be the most important SINGLE factor in determining their season?
Possible Winners, Co-Winners, Runners-Up:
Contestant A: Picked the Cards whose season record was 88-74. They did not make the playoffs. They were ranked 9th out of the 15 teams in the NL in terms of BA vs their pitchers and were 13th out of 15th in WHIP. This contestant predicted the Cards record would be 86-76, they wouldn’t make the playoffs, and said the single most important factor in their season would be pitching.
Contestant B: Picked the Red Sox who season record was 108-54. They won the World Series, hitting and pitching and some other factors all played important roles in the season and the postseason. This contestant said the Red Sox record would be 93-69, they’d win the WS over the Dodgers, and said the single most important factor in their season would be hitting.
Contestant C: Also picked the Red Sox who season record was 108-54. They won the World Series, hitting and pitching and some other factors all played important roles in the season and the postseason. This contestant said the Red Sox record would be 99-63, they’d win the WS, and JD Martinez would hit 44 HRs (he hit 43) which would be the single most important factor in their season.
Contestant D: Picked the Nationals who season record was 82-80. They did not make the postseason, tho many had predicted they would, and probably the two reasons they did not do so had to do with not bringing in runners who were on base (i.e., hitting) and/or being ranked 7th out of 15 National League teams in pitching). This contestant said their record would be 83-79, they would not make the playoffs and said the single most important factor in their season would be lack of hitting.
Contestant E: Also picked the Red Sox who season record was 108-54. They won the World Series, hitting and pitching and some other factors all played important roles in the season and the postseason. This contestant said their record would be 95-67, they’d lose to the Dodgers in the WS, and the single most important factor in their season with be hitting.
You can help determine the winner by ranking these five contestants in order from one to five (one being the best answer, etc.).
You may determine that there should be co-winners (two or more being tied for first).
It would be helpful for me, who will ultimately have to make the choice of who wins, if you gave a reason(s) for you votes and rankings.
You have until Tuesday of next week (Nov. 6) to submit your votes, which you can do either in the Comment section of this post or in an email to me (Samesty84@gmail.com).
I thank you in advance for your assistance.
Carrie said:
I think contestant C came to closest in their answers so tat would be 1st place for me
For 2nd place I would pick contestant D. That person was very close to target on answers and rated the team
Close to what really happened
Monica said:
I think contestant B wins, but if I had to rank the
1- b
2- c
3- d
4-e
5-a
elliott trommald said:
Contestant B is the winner. He got it right — particularly impressive because few thought the Sox had a chance of winning the WS. Many expected the Yankees to take the AL. Although C got the WS right, and Martinez was an important factor in a number of games, he was by no means the single most important factor. Pearce gave him more than a run for his money in winning the WS. Hitting was the most important single factor in what was an unexpected year. Pitching, fielding, and catching aint far behind.
Don said:
#1 would be D, # 2 would be C. D got everything almost perfect and was doing the hard thing, picking against his team and against the consensus. C was damn good too, picking the WS winner, but was 9 games off on their record.
Land Wayland said:
I opt for C because she/he was so close on more things including anticipating/hoping for a stellar win/loss record and specifically listing batting as being the determining factor in the team’s ultimate success
I next like B
Ed Scholl said:
It’s tough to choose a winner with a three-part question (and question 2 having two parts within it!) but here’s my vote on who should win. By the way, I’ve looked to Baseball Reference’s team WAR calculations for some insight on what made the biggest contribution to team success in 2018.
#1 – Contestant D. The win/loss prediction was uncannily close, and a gutsy call given their record in 2017. The postseason prediction was correct, as was the major cause (team WAR for all non-pitchers was -4.2.
#2 – Contestant A. Came very close to their actual record and called the postseason correctly. Pitching was indeed the major factor in the Cards’ demise….a -5.7 team WAR for pitchers.
#3 – Contestant B. I think this contestant deserves 3rd place for correctly picking the Red Sox to win the WS over the Dodgers. However, their hitting — while very good — was not as superlative as their pitching, which led the majors in team WAR (+15.0).
#4 – Contestant C. Correctly picked the Red Sox to win the WS. J.D. Martinez had an excellent season, but the projection would have been even better had Mookie Betts been picked as the major offensive factor.
#5 – Contestant E.
James M Kilby said:
I think A and D were the closer with there predictions, with a edge to D. Harder to pick the worst record, then the best.
Rob said:
In order
D – They win with not only the closest record prediction, but the most unexpected. Picking the Sox to win between 90-99 wins was not a stretch, but picking an expected winner to struggle and nailing it(only better prediction would have been because of injuries) is the point of this contest.
A – Close on their record prediction
C – Best of the champ predictors
B – Would have had a chance, but 15 wins off on the prediction
E – Would have edged out B if they had the Sox winning it over LA
Ben said:
A & D
Brian Steinbach said:
First – A. Closest to actual record, not in the playoffs, and the stats support that the pitching was bad.
Tie for second – C & B. C came closest to anyone in getting the record right (who picks a team to win 100 or more?), was right on the WS, but a little too specific on Martinez. B did worse on the record but was broader on the hitting factor.
Fourth – D. Almost perfect on the record and called the post season. But i disagree on the lack of hitting, in my observation (not supported by statistical analysis) it was the woeful performance by the bullpen, save for Doolittle who was then out nearly half the season.
Fifth – E. Didn’t get the WS question right and was second to C on the record.
Chris Boutourline said:
The saying, “Lies, Damned lies, and statistics” was popularized by Mark Twain who attributed it to Benjamin Disraeil (wikipedia).
Disclosure: I fear a Russian judge in the house and I have a horse in the race.
I broke it down this way 1. Record? 2. Playoffs? If so….? 3. Single factor?
For correct record: I put D as the clear winner with A a handily beaten 2nd. B, C, and E brought up the rear, with C enjoying a slight edge amongst this group (statistically, I think they all deviate, to a negligible extent, from the outlier of 108 wins- edge to C for absolute closest). Points (1-5, lowest total wins) D=1 A=2 C= 3 B & E= 3.5
I based D as winner due to correctly under-valuing Nats who, prior to the season, Vegas placed an over/under on (for # of wins) of 92.5 wins (the 1/2 point is because Vegas doesn’t like ties) -they won 82. A, came in 2nd by picking very close to what oddsmakers expected of the team (85.5), the Cards won 88 (I think they greatly, over-achieved given the team’s make-up). See above for B, C, & E.
As to the “Make Playoffs?” question it has an inherent weakness, which is, that, if you pick your team to NOT make the playoffs, you’re done answering questions, whereas, the pickers of their favorite team to play on, have to navigate 3-4 rounds of playoffs. This is where the Russian judge comes in as degree of difficulty enters the equations.
I came up with an order favoring playoff “pickers”: in this order, B=1 C & E=2.5 D=3 A=3.5
Reasoning: B got it dead-on, C & E had Red Sox in WS, C had them winning it but didn’t name opponent. E had them in WS but losing to Dodgers (btw, naming WS opponent or other “extra credit” twists (see “J.D. Martinez”) seem like sucking-up to Russian judge). D gets a bit screwed but really, hasn’t the annual implosion of the Nats become, lately, almost as dependable as the Red Sox winning the WS? And A picked a team that wasn’t expected, by most, to make the playoffs.
“SINGLE” (R.M.’s caps) Factor: B & E= 1 C=2.5 A & D= 3.5
Reasoning: B & E both said Red Sox “hitting”. According to ESPN “Sortable Hitting & Pitching”, Boston was 1st in hitting and 8th in pitching. C came up with the very specific JD Martinez, homer prediction but I considered this, maybe the best, TEAM to ever play in Fenway so an individual pick misses the mark. D said Nats hitting would fail them but ESPN has them 8th out of 30 in batting, so it’s a stretch to say they failed in hitting.
“A” said Cards pitching would stand-out as lacking but they fell equally as short in hitting (ranked12/30 in pitching and 11/30 in batting.
Final Score= B=5.5 D & E=7 C=8 A=9
Closing thoughts; I know the contest favors early voters so that should be considered. A thought for the 2019 contest, a “Most surprising team” – did anybody have Oakland for 97 wins? (their over/under was 74.5). Also, if the question, re: playoffs, remains the same next year I’d like the non-playoff pickers to venture a guess as to the outcome of the playoffs to raise their degree of difficulty.
Dodger Dawn said:
I say D first and then A as they were the closest to the actual record, predicted their teams wouldn’t make the playoffs, and were accurate in their reasons why.